Avian Flu: Not Just for the Birds
The words "Avian Flu" and "pandemic" have been in the headlines a lot lately. But is this all just media hype or does the potential exist for a true worldwide natural disaster? Here's some food for thought.
Take A Walk on the Wild Side
Avian Flu in birds is nothing new. Wild birds are carriers for the flu, which can manifest itself in a form so mild that only a trained veterinarian would recognize it. But another strain of the Avian Flu, first documented in Italy in 1878, is so destructive that death occurs within 48 hours of contracting the virus.
Wild birds are infecting domesticated poultry with the deadly form of the Avian Flu called H5N1. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the first documented human infections of H5N1 in Hong Kong in 1997 coincided with a very large and deadly outbreak in the domesticated fowl population. WHO was able to determine that close contact with dead or sick birds was the cause among the humans who contracted H5N1. They also found that the cases were almost all in rural area households where chickens were kept.
The H5N1 virus in humans is fast acting and usually fatal. A person may not show any signs of the virus for about a week, but once sick, severe flu-like respiratory symptoms, a high fever, diarrhea, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain and bleeding from the nose and gums may take place. Almost all patients contract viral pneumonia, which does not respond to antibiotics.
WHO points out that, "At present, H5N1 avian influenza remains largely a disease of birds (because) the virus does not easily cross from birds to infect humans. Despite the infection of tens of millions of poultry over large geographical areas since mid-2003, fewer than 200 human cases have been confirmed...Very few cases have been detected in presumed high-risk groups, such as commercial poultry workers, workers at live poultry markets, cullers (those who euthanize sick birds), veterinarians, and health staff caring for patients without adequate protective equipment." In other words, the deadly H5N1 is easily passed from bird to bird, rarely passed from bird to human, and so far, has never been passed from human to human.
A Deadly Disease
Although the H5N1 avian flu virus has yet to pass from human to human, experts point out that in well over half the humans who have contracted it from close proximity to infected birds, it has been fatal. "The virus has met all prerequisites for the start of a pandemic save one," warns the World Health Organization, "an ability to spread efficiently and sustainably among humans (through) a more gradual process of adaptive mutation," which means that if/when the virus mutates so that it can be passed from human to human, a pandemic is likely.
The Hong Kong 1997 outbreak produced 18 human cases. Human infections ceased immediately when Hong Kong destroyed its entire population of 1.5 million domestic birds in three days. Some experts contend that these swift and drastic steps to quell the outbreak in 1997 may have averted a pandemic then.
The US Department of Health & Human Services Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) describes a pandemic as a global outbreak of a serious illness to which there is little human immunity so that it is easily spread from person to person.
To put the seriousness of an Avian Flu pandemic in perspective, most people have some immunity to, and a vaccine is available for, the common seasonal respiratory flu. Yet, the common flu still results in about 200,000 hospitalizations and about 36,000 deaths in the US every year. In contrast, there is no human immunity and no vaccine for the Avian Flu and those who contract it are likely to die from it.
The US government is working on a vaccine. As early as March 2005, the US Department of Health & Human Services National Institutes of Health (NIH) initiated a series of human trials using an inactivated vaccine made from an H5N1 virus isolated in Southeast Asia in 2004, but already, two substrains have emerged that are different enough to justify making a new formulation. Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt has promised $1.781 million of the HHS budget to developing vaccines. "But it will take at least six months to produce a bird flu vaccine once a pandemic breaks out," he admits. In the meantime, Leavitt is holding pandemic preparation conventions across the country like the one in Boston attended by MRA President & CEO, Peter Christie. These meetings are designed to coordinate systems and services of the medical, emergency, law enforcement and business communities in the event of a pandemic.
The Nesting Instinct
Experts estimate that if a pandemic hits, 30% of the population could be unable to work at any one time. Not only would a third of your employees not be able to report for work, but one-third of your customers would also be ill. It is also likely that government officials would encourage people to practice "social distancing" by staying away from public events, closing daycare centers and schools. They predict that commerce would be severely curtailed as companies struggled to stay open.
Darlene Washington, Director of Disease Prevention Education at the American Red Cross, says that people should plan on being stuck in their homes for at least 10 days, possibly without power and water. She encourages people to start stockpiling emergency supplies now a little at a time. She recommends that you store one gallon of water per person, per day for a ten-day period. "There's a chance that your water will get cut off if there's a pandemic," she said. "Workers may not be able to make it, and plants may stop operating."
Washington also recommended building a supply of foods that have a long shelf life and don't need to be heated, like canned tuna, peanut butter, protein bars and crackers. Some people may also want to put aside food for pets, infant formula, and diapers. She urged consumers to start stockpiling now because in case of a pandemic, stores will not be able to replenish shelves readily. In addition to food and water, power outages will necessitate things like flashlights, batteries, matches, manual can openers and family activities like board games and cards. "You probably won't have trash service," she predicts. "So make sure you have plenty of receptacles for your trash. And hygiene items like paper towels, toilet paper and soap." She recommends getting an additional 10-day supply of medications and over the counter cold and flu-fighting products as well as fever reducers and something for upset stomachs. And of course, as a preventative practice, be vigilant with hand washing.
For now, restaurateurs can assure nervous customers that Avian Flu is not a food-borne illness and properly cooked poultry is safe to eat. According to MRA Member Lisa Berger, MPH, of Berger Food Safety Consulting, "Restaurateurs should cook poultry thoroughly, observing the same precautions as they would to prevent Salmonella and Campylobacteriosis."
Although at present no pandemic exists, it seems prudent to heed the experts and prepare for the worst. According to the World Health Organization, "more than half of the confirmed cases of the flu have been fatal. H5N1 avian influenza in humans is still a rare disease, but a severe one that must be closely watched and studied, particularly because of the potential of this virus to evolve in ways that could start a pandemic."
For more information on the web visit www.pandemicflu.gov.
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